The Next Construction Supercycle: What Berkshire Hathaway’s Investments Mean for Equipment Buyers
Executive Summary
Most people see Berkshire Hathaway’s acquisition of Taylor Morrison as a major homebuilding transaction.
We see something broader: a market signal.
On May 31, 2026, Berkshire announced an agreement to acquire Taylor Morrison for $72.50 per share in cash, representing approximately $6.8 billion of equity value and $8.5 billion of enterprise value. The acquisition closed on July 24, 2026. Taylor Morrison is now being integrated with Berkshire’s existing site-built homebuilding operations, including Clayton Properties Group and its collection of 15 regional and local homebuilders.
The transaction followed Berkshire’s disclosure in August 2025 of substantial public-equity investments in homebuilders Lennar and D.R. Horton and steel producer Nucor. At June 30, 2025 market values, those positions were worth approximately $780 million, $192 million and $857 million, respectively.
These were not all permanent holdings - Berkshire subsequently exited D.R. Horton - and the individual stock purchases may have been selected by Berkshire investment managers rather than Warren Buffett or Greg Abel personally. Nevertheless, viewed alongside the Taylor Morrison acquisition and Berkshire’s long-standing ownership of Clayton Homes and major building-products businesses, they demonstrate renewed capital deployment into housing, steel and the broader built environment.
At the same time, commercial construction tied to artificial intelligence, data centers, power generation and advanced manufacturing is creating significant demand for construction equipment. When residential construction eventually strengthens, that demand will not replace today’s commercial activity. It will be added to it.
For buyers of mobile elevating work platforms, commonly called MEWPs, as well as boom lifts, scissor lifts, telehandlers, towable boom lifts and other aerial equipment, the convergence of these construction cycles could become especially consequential.
Demand may accelerate precisely when the market begins confronting a limited supply of desirable used equipment manufactured during the COVID-disrupted production years of 2020 and 2021.
That is the foundation of our thesis:
The next construction supercycle may be driven not only by recovering residential demand, but by residential demand colliding with an already active commercial market and a constrained equipment-supply cycle.
Most People See an Acquisition. We See a Signal.
At Aerial Titans, our work requires us to look beyond the immediate transaction.
We study construction activity, OEM production, equipment lead times, rental-fleet replacement cycles, used-equipment values, financing conditions, and the availability of specific machines across North America.
Our business depends on recognizing tomorrow’s market today. - Andrew Johnson, Managing Partner
Viewed through that lens, Berkshire Hathaway’s recent construction-related investments tell a compelling story.
Berkshire has not merely purchased another homebuilder. It has placed one of its largest recent acquisition bets behind the continued importance of American housing - and it has combined Taylor Morrison with a construction ecosystem Berkshire has been assembling for decades.
Berkshire Is Not Making One Bet. It Is Building on a Long-Term Thesis.
Berkshire has long owned businesses serving housing, construction and real estate.
Its portfolio includes:
- Clayton Homes, encompassing manufactured housing, financing and site-built homebuilding operations
- Acme Brick, a producer and distributor of brick and masonry products
- Johns Manville, a manufacturer of insulation, roofing and engineered building materials
- Benjamin Moore, a manufacturer of architectural and industrial coatings
- Shaw Industries, a major flooring manufacturer
- MiTek, a provider of structural components, connectors, software and engineering solutions
- Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices, a residential real-estate brokerage network
Berkshire’s own reporting has long grouped Johns Manville, Benjamin Moore, Acme and MiTek among its building-products businesses, while Clayton provides direct exposure to housing construction and finance.
The Taylor Morrison transaction significantly expands that platform.
Under Berkshire, Taylor Morrison will continue to be led by CEO Sheryl Palmer. Its brands - including Taylor Morrison, Esplanade, Yardly and Taylor Morrison Home Funding - will be integrated with Berkshire’s site-built homebuilding operations within Clayton Properties Group. The combined business is intended to serve renters, entry-level buyers, move-up buyers and resort-lifestyle customers.
This is more than diversification.
It gives Berkshire exposure across multiple layers of the building economy:
Homebuilding → Building materials → Engineered components → Flooring and finishes → Mortgage finance → Real-estate brokerage
Berkshire Hathaway’s Recent Construction-Related Capital Allocation
The stock values reflect the positions reported in Berkshire’s Form 13F for the quarter ended June 30, 2025 - not necessarily Berkshire’s total purchase cost or the positions’ current value. The D.R. Horton investment was later sold, which is why it should be viewed as part of Berkshire’s recent activity rather than described as an ongoing holding.
Taylor Morrison by the Numbers
At the time of the acquisition, Taylor Morrison reported:
- Approximately $8.5 billion in enterprise value
- Approximately $6.8 billion in equity value
- $72.50 paid per common share
- $7.76 billion in 2025 revenue
- 12,997 homes delivered during 2025
- 341 active selling communities
- 21 markets across 12 states
- Approximately 3,000 full-time team members
The purchase price represented an approximately 24% premium to Taylor Morrison’s May 29, 2026 closing price.
Why the Timing Matters
Berkshire did not announce this acquisition at the peak of an overheated housing market.
It acted while residential housing continued to face meaningful headwinds:
- Elevated mortgage rates
- High home prices
- Persistent affordability challenges
- Increased construction and labor costs
- Uneven consumer confidence
- Lower transaction activity than in the ultra-low-rate period
Those conditions have restrained residential activity.
They have not eliminated the underlying need for housing.
Freddie Mac estimated that the United States remained approximately 3.7 million housing units short as of the third quarter of 2024. Its analysis concluded that even after millions of units were added over the preceding four years, demand had grown by nearly the same amount, leaving little progress in closing the structural shortage.
That distinction is central to the Berkshire thesis.
- Demand can be delayed by affordability without being permanently destroyed.
- People still form households.
- Families still grow.
- Employees still relocate.
- Housing stock still ages.
- Communities still require additional inventory.
Berkshire appears to be investing on the belief that the present affordability cycle is temporary, while America’s underlying housing requirements are enduring.
A New CEO—and a Significant Early Capital-Allocation Decision
Greg Abel became Berkshire Hathaway’s president and chief executive officer on January 1, 2026, while Warren Buffett remained chairman. Berkshire’s board had unanimously approved the transition in May 2025.
Five months into Abel’s tenure, Berkshire announced the Taylor Morrison acquisition.
It would be inaccurate to suggest that Abel must produce a return from the transaction within a year. Berkshire’s model, culture and shareholder base are built around long- duration ownership, decentralized management and patient capital.
But the acquisition is still significant.
It is one of the clearest early indications of where Berkshire, under Abel’s leadership, is willing to deploy substantial capital.
In announcing the transaction, Abel directly connected Taylor Morrison to Berkshire’s “long-standing commitment to housing,” specifically referencing Clayton Homes and Berkshire’s other building-products businesses.
That makes the transaction more than a passive investment.
It is an operating-company acquisition designed to strengthen and broaden Berkshire’s existing housing platform.
Commercial Construction Is Already Creating a Powerful Demand Base
The residential recovery is only one side of the equation.
The other is the significant amount of commercial and industrial construction already underway or planned across the United States.
Key areas include:
- Hyperscale and artificial-intelligence data centers
- Power generation
- Transmission and grid modernization
- Semiconductor fabrication
- Advanced manufacturing
- Battery and automotive plants
- Distribution and logistics facilities
- Supporting utilities and infrastructure
U.S. nonresidential construction spending was running at an annualized rate of approximately $1.27 trillion in May 2026, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of Census Bureau data.
Not every commercial category is expanding equally. In fact, several traditional commercial segments have been restrained by borrowing costs.
However, data-center and power-related work have been unusually strong. ABC reported that data-center investment accounted for more than 70% of the increase in private nonresidential construction spending between March 2024 and March 2025. It also observed that power-sector spending was being supported by data centers and their substantial energy requirements.
Meta alone increased its expected 2026 capital-expenditure range to $125 billion to $145 billion, citing, among other factors, additional data-center costs required to support future capacity. Not all of that spending represents construction, but it illustrates the scale of capital being directed toward AI and computing infrastructure.
These projects require extensive fleets of construction equipment, including:
- Telehandlers and rough-terrain forklifts for material movement
- Articulating and telescopic boom lifts for elevated access
- Electric and rough-terrain scissor lifts
- Compact and full-size material-handling equipment
- Towable boom lifts for specialized and lower-intensity access requirements
- Supporting cranes, earthmoving equipment and power systems
The important point is not that every construction category is booming simultaneously.
The point is that several extremely capital-intensive categories are generating equipment demand before a full residential recovery occurs.
Residential Demand Will Not Replace Commercial Demand. It Will Stack on Top of It.
When housing activity strengthens, contractors will not suddenly stop building data centers, power plants, semiconductor facilities or advanced-manufacturing campuses.
Residential demand will be added to the commercial and industrial demand already present in the market.
That is what makes the next cycle different.
The equipment market may eventually be required to support all of the following at once:
AI infrastructure + Power generation + Manufacturing + Logistics + Residential construction
For mobile elevating work platforms and material-handling equipment, this demand convergence could put additional pressure on:
- OEM production capacity
- Component and engine availability
- Factory allocation
- Dealer inventory
- Rental-fleet utilization
- Transportation and logistics
- New-equipment lead times
- Late-model used-equipment values
The Supply Dynamic Few People Are Discussing
Most market forecasts focus on construction demand.
Fewer examine what the used-equipment supply may look like when that demand strengthens.
The years 2020 and 2021 were highly unusual for equipment manufacturers and rental fleets.
Factories temporarily closed or operated below normal capacity.
Component availability deteriorated.
Shipping networks became unreliable.
OEM production schedules were disrupted.
Rental companies could not purchase replacement equipment in the quantities or on the schedules they originally intended.
The precise size of the production shortfall varied by manufacturer and equipment category, and comprehensive public production data for every MEWP and telehandler OEM are limited.
Nevertheless, the industry experienced a clear disruption in the normal flow of new machines into rental and contractor fleets.
That matters because today’s new equipment becomes tomorrow’s used equipment.
The “Missing Generation” of Used Equipment
At Aerial Titans, we refer to this as the potential Missing Generation of Equipment.
The thesis is straightforward:
model used inventory approximately seven to nine years later.
3. That places the potential supply gap primarily in the 2027–2029 period.
4. Rental companies facing expensive or delayed replacements may retain equipment longer.
5. Fewer disposals would further reduce the amount of desirable used equipment available to buyers.
The timing will differ by asset class, fleet owner, utilization, maintenance history and market conditions.
This is therefore an Aerial Titans market forecast - not a published industry certainty.
But the mechanism is difficult to ignore:
When fewer machines enter the front end of the equipment lifecycle, fewer machines can emerge from the back end several years later.
Why Rental Companies May Extend Fleet Life
Large rental companies do not dispose of every machine according to one rigid schedule.
Disposal decisions are influenced by:
- Age
- Hours and utilization
- Maintenance expense
- Model desirability
- Fleet standardization
- Customer demand
- Residual value
- Replacement cost
- Availability of new machines
Seven to eight years is a useful general reference point for many assets, but it is not universal.
In a constrained replacement market, rental companies may conclude that maintaining an older, paid-down machine is preferable to selling it without a dependable replacement.
That could push portions of certain fleets toward nine or ten years of service.
If that occurs at scale, it produces several consequences:
- Fewer machines reach auctions and wholesale channels
- Contractors have fewer late-model used choices
- Buyers compete more aggressively for desirable makes and models
- Remaining used machines retain more value
- Buyers who cannot source used equipment shift toward new equipment
- New-equipment demand and OEM order books receive additional pressure
The new and used equipment markets are not separate ecosystems.
They are connected.
When used supply becomes scarce, buyers migrate toward new equipment.
When new availability tightens, buyers bid more aggressively for used equipment.
Each market places pressure on the other.
What This Means for Equipment Buyers
The next market may reward buyers who treat fleet procurement as a strategic function rather than an occasional transaction.
1. Start planning replacement cycles earlier
Waiting until a machine fails or a project has already mobilized may expose buyers to higher prices and fewer acceptable options.
2. Maintain flexibility between new and used equipment
The strongest procurement strategy may involve a mix of new machines, late-model used equipment and carefully selected older units with strong maintenance histories.
3. Prioritize condition over headline price
As desirable used equipment becomes harder to source, verified condition, service history and specification will become increasingly important.
4. Protect relationships with dependable suppliers
Access to inventory may depend as much on established relationships and predictable execution as it does on price.
5. Plan financing before equipment becomes urgent
A buyer with financing capacity already established can act quickly when the right machine becomes available.
6. Account for residual value
In a supply-constrained market, the lowest acquisition price may not produce the lowest total cost of ownership. Brand, model, configuration and future resale demand all matter.
7. Avoid relying entirely on spot-market availability
The spot market works best when supply is plentiful. It becomes less dependable when multiple construction sectors compete for the same equipment.
Why This Matters to Aerial Titans
Aerial Titans was built for a market in which availability, speed and market knowledge matter.
Our responsibility does not begin when a customer sends us a request for a machine.
It begins much earlier.
We study fleet cycles.
We analyze equipment values.
We monitor OEM lead times and allocation.
We maintain relationships with manufacturers, rental companies, dealers, contractors and fleet owners across North America.
We source both new and used equipment.
We develop financing solutions.
We coordinate logistics.
We prepare for shortages before shortages become visible to the broader market.
Whether our customers require:
- A new JLG or SkyTrak telehandler
- A Genie or JLG telescopic boom lift
- A Skyjack or Genie scissor lift
- A Niftylift towable boom lift
- A hard-to-find late-model used machine
- A larger multi-unit fleet solution
Our objective remains the same:
Deliver the right equipment when the market makes it difficult to find.
Key Takeaways
Berkshire has reinforced its long-standing commitment to housing.
Its $8.5 billion acquisition of Taylor Morrison is being integrated with Clayton Properties Group and Berkshire’s existing site-built homebuilding platform.
Berkshire’s recent stock activity also touched housing and construction materials.
The Lennar, D.R. Horton and Nucor positions disclosed in August 2025 were worth approximately $1.83 billion in total at June 30, 2025 market values. These were public- equity investments - not acquisitions - and D.R. Horton was later sold.
The housing shortage remains unresolved.
Freddie Mac estimated that the United States was approximately 3.7 million housing units short as of the third quarter of 2024.
Commercial demand already has a powerful data-center and power component.
Data centers accounted for more than 70% of the increase in private nonresidential construction spending between March 2024 and March 2025, according to ABC’s analysis of Census Bureau data.
Residential demand would be additive.
A housing recovery would occur alongside - not instead of - ongoing investment in data centers, power infrastructure, manufacturing and logistics.
The equipment market may face a delayed COVID-era supply effect.
Lower and disrupted equipment production during 2020 and 2021 may result in less late- model used inventory becoming available during the 2027–2029 period.
Rental companies may retain machines longer.
When replacement equipment is expensive or unavailable, keeping a productive existing machine can be more attractive than selling it according to a traditional age-based disposal schedule.
Scarcity may support used-equipment values.
Fewer desirable machines entering the market would increase competition for quality used boom lifts, scissor lifts and telehandlers.
Procurement planning may become a competitive advantage.
Companies that build supplier relationships, arrange financing and forecast fleet needs in advance may be better positioned than buyers relying on immediate spot-market availability.
Final Thoughts
Markets rarely change overnight.
They telegraph their direction through capital allocation, demographic pressure, construction spending, fleet age and supply-chain behavior.
Berkshire Hathaway’s acquisition of Taylor Morrison does not prove exactly when housing will accelerate.
Its prior stock investments in Lennar, D.R. Horton and Nucor do not, by themselves, guarantee a coordinated construction strategy.
And no investment - even one made by Berkshire - is an infallible forecast.
But the pattern deserves attention.
Berkshire already owned one of America’s most extensive collections of housing and building-products businesses.
It then deployed additional capital into homebuilders and steel.
Under Greg Abel, it followed those investments with an $8.5 billion acquisition that substantially expands its site-built homebuilding operations.
At the same time, America is attempting to build the physical infrastructure required for artificial intelligence, data storage, power generation, advanced manufacturing and modern logistics.
The residential cycle is restrained - but the housing need remains.
The commercial cycle is uneven - but several equipment-intensive categories are advancing rapidly.
The equipment-supply cycle is functioning - but the market may soon encounter the delayed consequences of the machines that were not produced during the height of COVID disruption.
Viewed together, these forces suggest the possibility of a powerful construction and equipment cycle ahead.
At Aerial Titans, we believe the companies best positioned for that market will be those that prepare before the pressure arrives.
We intend to do exactly that.
We study tomorrow’s market today - so our partners do not have to.
Sources and Methodology
This publication is based on public disclosures and reporting from Berkshire Hathaway, Taylor Morrison, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Freddie Mac, the U.S. Census Bureau, Associated Builders and Contractors and corporate investor-relations materials.
Stock-position values represent reported quarter-end market values and should not be interpreted as exact acquisition costs or current holdings. Equipment-supply observations and forecasts reflect Aerial Titans’ industry analysis and should not be interpreted as guaranteed market outcomes.
